2006 Global Terrorism NIE

Like any intelligence product, the declassified Key Judgments of the 2006 National Intelligence Estimate "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States" relies on certain explicit and implicit assumptions as a part of its analysis. Identifying these assumptions is crucial for evaluating the accuracy of any piece of analysis, and intelligence products in particular. Explicit assumptions may be identified by looking out for key words, while implicit assumptions require more in-depth consideration.

The explicit assumptions in the 2006 NIE are identified by certain key words which inform the reader that the following information is not verified fact, but rather based on an assumption, which itself may or may not be based on specific evidence. These key words include terms like "probably," "likely," "could," and "would," because all of these words signify that the statements being made are conditional, rather than definitive. In other instances, the...
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