A number of economists suggest that markets are efficient, but this efficiency is merely assumed. In this regard, Batten points out that, "There is no actual proof. It is virtually impossible to test for market efficiency since the 'correct' prices cannot be observed. To get over this hurdle, most tests examine the ability of information-based trading strategies to make above-normal returns. But the results of such tests do not really prove whether markets are efficient. Therein lies the basic dilemma" (p. 210).

In his book, Stock Market Cycles: A Practical Explanation, Bolten (2000) reports that assuming that an economy begins in a trough (a period this author refers to a the first stage of the economic cycle), expectations are for positive economic growth and higher future earnings, which has a positive impact on stock prices. In this regard, Bolten points out that, "Interest rates are typically low at this period...
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