The forecast provided by Allen Sinai gave the reader a somewhat accurate analysis of the macroeconomic phenomenon. However, there are also a few problems. Sinai estimates a 0.4% increase in 2005 for the consumer price index, which is not actually correct, but it's not to far from reality either. Given the increase of the interest rate, people will probably feel not so comfortable in buying as much as during the previous years, so a slight decrease can be expected. After all, January is known as a slow month. 0.4% means about 4% a year, which is much more than the economy is currently able to take.

The estimated trade balance was larger than the recorded one, therefore proving the pessimism of Mr. Sinai. After all, many analysts expected worse trade deficit results than the one that were published in November 2004. It would seem that the low-value dollar policy promoted...
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