Those who predict future behavior and demand for products and services correctly can profit tremendously from their planning; conversely, those who invest in technologies or applications based on assumptions or expectations that never materialize run the risk of losing their entire investment. In that respect, the computer realm is no different from the decisions and projections made in traditional types of businesses. It may just seem different by virtue of the accelerated rate of computer evolution and development and the fact that some of the specific new technologies and capabilities become so widely and rapidly adopted that they can change society practically overnight.

In all likelihood, computers today are similar to paper in the Middle Ages when producing paper was so labor intensive and expensive that very little was available and only to the wealthiest classes. Another analog might be dry cell battery technology around the turn of the 20th...
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