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Title: Forecast and Valuations of Black and Decker

  • Total Pages: 5
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  • Document Type: Essay
Essay Instructions: This is a group project for an MBA Financial Reporting and Analysis course. My portion of the assignment is to write about 5 pages that discuss the Forecasts, Valuations and the conclusion of the assignment. I am not 100% sure of how I am supposed to handle this paper as I have missed a lot of the course. Below is the rest of the group's contribution to the project to give you an idea of what they have come up with thus far.





Final Project





I. Executive Summary


Table of Contents

Executive Summary 3
Overview 5
Strategy 6
Accounting Analysis 11
Financial Analysis 15
Forecasting 29
Valuation
Assessment of Solvency
Conclusion
Exhibits 33
References 41





II. Overview


III. Strategy
A. SWOT Analysis
Below is a SWOT analysis that was performed for Black & Decker.
Strengths
? Diversified Business Operations
? Brand Awareness Weaknesses
? Concentrated Customers
? Weaker Financial Performance
Opportunities
? Cost Saving Initiatives
? Security Acquisition
? Global Expansion n Threats
? Pension and post retirement benefit liabilities
? Decline in Credit Rating
? Stringent Environmental Regulations


B. Strengths

? Diversified Business Operations ? Black and Decker has ventured into several areas since its existence emerged in household tools. They have diversified their business ventures to power tools for lawn care, saws, drills, space technology, appliances, workbenches, battery chargers, flashlights, security hardware and faucets Most recently, on November 2, 2009 Black and Decker merged with Stanley Works, ?a worldwide supplier of quality tools and engineered solutions for industrial, construction and do-it-yourself use, and security solutions for commercial applications? (business wire). This combination resulted in Black & Decker turning into an $8.4 billion global diversified leader. This created a stronger shareholder value and an increase in financial strength. Black & Decker is now a global leader in power tools, security hardware, product diversification, home improvement and do-it-yourself projects.
? Brand Awareness ? Black & Decker has been a household name since 1910 and started to become globally known a few years later in 1912. Brands that are within Black & Decker include: Dust Buster, Black & Decker Firestorm, Emhart Tecknologies, Weiser Lock, Kwikset, Porter-Cable, DeWalt, DeVilbiss Air Power, Baldwin, Price Pfister, Oldman Blades and Vector. Black & Decker can be found in various locations across the global including: Europe, North America (Canada, Mexico, and United States), South America, Asia, Middle East, Australia, New Zealand and Africa.
C. Weakness
? Concentrated Customers ? Several companies that Black & Decker has merged with or has acquired has been within the United States. This dampens the broad range of the potential customers Black & Decker could have. They are Van Dorn Electric Company, General Electric, Baldwin Hardware, Wesier Lock, Pent Air and Vector. The acquisition of Pentair alone almost doubled the sales volume Black & Decker had for its industrial products just in the United States.
? Weaker Financial Performance ? ?Stanley Black & Decker posted net sales of $2.8 billion for its third fiscal quarter, up 6% over the same quarter last year. Both price and volume were relatively flat, the company said, while currency (-3%) partially offset the contribution from acquisitions (+9%)?. (homechannelnews). The company even mentioned that it would consider selling the home improvement and hardware portion of its company to Spectrum Brands Holding Inc for $1.4 million.
D. Opportunities

? Cost Saving Initiatives ? When sales decreased a few years ago, effects from the housing crisis in the U.S., the company decided to lay off 700 employees, to close a plant and to also close an office. Feeling the effect by the increase in commodity costs Black & Decker choose several ways to save money, this includes delaying merit raises, decreasing discretionary expenses and analyze how they can decrease spending. They are expecting a savings of $50 million specifically in cost savings from their layoffs.
? Security Acquisition? On September 9, 2011 Black & Decker completed its acquisition of Niscayah, of Stockholm, Sweden. ?The addition of Niscayah enhances Black & Deckers ability to serve our customers by giving us expanded product offerings and a wider geographic footprint in the highly attractive commercial security sector? as stated by John F. Lundgren (sdmmag). The expected cost saving from this acquisition is approximately $80 million. ?The acquisition was funded with Stanley Black & Decker?s existing offshore cash resources with no additional debt or equity issuances.? The acquisition has enhanced Black & Decker?s services in, ?security solutions, video surveillance and access control systems, fire and security systems and monitoring services to commercial, industrial, government, local, national and global customers throughout Europe and the United States.?
? Global Expansion ? By closing plants and offices in the U.S. to offset lower sales the company experienced double ? digit growth in Asia, Europe and Latin America. The recent acquisition of Niscayah in Sweden has broadened Black and Decker?s international foot print.
E. Threats

? Pension and post retirement benefit liabilities ? With the challenges they face in the global economy Black & Decker has suspended their employee benefit of matching 401k contributions indefinitely. With this change they also cut their executives pay by 10% and their non-exempt employees by 5%.
? Declining Credit Rating ? In 2009 the company?s decline of 20% in the first quarter led to the decline in their credit rating. It was enough to place the corporation on Credit Watch. Standard & Poor?s is concerned that the corporation may fall below the BBB rating it current has. The corporation currently has a BBB long term rating and a A-2 short term rating.
? Stringent Environmental Regulations ? With the global population becoming more aware of the impact they are causing on the environment it places more pressure on corporations to abide by the environmental regulations that are put in place. Black & Decker will need to keep up with the regulations set in place and produce tools that impact the environment less. For example, their X-Torq chainsaw consumes lower fuel and emits lower exhaust emissions in accordance to current environmental regulations.
F. Societal Expectations

Mid-year 2012 Black & Decker?s stock was up 5% regardless of their weak 2nd quarter. Within the second quarter, earnings decreased by 22 cents; from $197.3 million ($1.14 per share to $154.8 million (92 cents per share). Adjusted earnings resulted in $1.32 per share, short of the estimated earnings per share of $1.52. Revenues also increased 8% to $2.81 billion, also short of the expectation of $2.9 billion in revenue.
Moving forward the company lowered their forecasted earnings for the upcoming year. The adjustment consisted of an expectation of an EPS of $5.40 - $5.65 per share; a decrease from the previous expectations of $5.75 - $6.00.
The decrease is result of a weak foreign exchange and an unbalance of various segments within the corporation. On a strong note for stock holders a 40% increase will take place for their quarterly dividend; 49 cents per share. The company also repurchased 20 million shares of their common stock; a value of 1.2 million.

G. Corporate Culture

"Black & Decker's objective is to establish itself as the pre-eminent global manufacturer and marketer of power tools and accessories, hardware and home improvement products, and technology based fastening systems." (Makingafortune)
Their commitment to communities is engraved in their culture. They have built homes around the global for those in need and invested in education for students to acquire skill sets for higher paying jobs. They have also given back to the community by rebuilding devastated areas from natural disasters and assisting communities in various ways when they are in need of improvement.
The corporation encourages all of the staff to lend a helping hand and share the knowledge they have about home improvements and repairs with others in the community.

IV. Accounting Analysis
According to Stanley Black & Decker?s annual report of the fiscal year ending in December 31, 2011 the accounts of Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. 2011 as well as the accounts of its owned subsidiaries are included in the consolidate financial statements. The primary source of liquidity is cash flows generated from the company?s operations and lines of credits with different financial institutions. The company?s merger and acquisition, software, as well as the company?s receivables, inventories and accounts payable generated the majority of the cash outflow from operations and working capital.
A. Foreign Currency
Depending on the type of accounts the company uses certain exchange rates:
? For foreign operations with functional currencies other than the U.S. dollar, asset and liability accounts are translated at current exchange rates
? Income and expenses are translated using weighted-average exchange rates
? Translation adjustments are reported in a separate component of shareowners? equity and exchange gains and losses on transactions are included in earnings.
B. Cash Equivalents
Highly liquid investments with original maturities of three months or less are considered cash equivalents.

C. Accounts and Financing Receivable
According to the Stanley Black & Decker Inc. Year review ?Trade receivables are stated at gross invoice amount less discounts, other allowances and provision for uncollectible accounts. Financing receivables are initially recorded at fair value, less impairments or provisions for credit losses. Interest income earned from financing receivables that are not delinquent is recorded on the effective interest method?: financing receivables that are not collected within 90 days of the original billing date are considered as past-due or delinquent; these delinquent receivables are considered as nonperforming.
D. Allowance for Doubtful Accounts
Two methods are used to estimate the company?s allowance for doubtful accounts:
? The company established a ?specific reserve? when information collected indicates that the customer may not be able to meet its financial obligation with the company.
? The company determines a reserve for all customers based on a range of percentages applied to aging categories. When the company collects the receivables the write offs are charged against the allowance.
E. Inventories
The majority of the company?s inventory in United States is valued using LIFO method, (Last-In-First-Out). Because LIFO is not permitted due to statutory reporting outside the United States, the company uses FIFO (First-In, First=Out) to managed other inventories.
F. Property, Plant and Equipment
The Company includes capitalize software as part of its Property Plant & Equipment. These are valued as historical cost less accumulated depreciation and amortization. The maintenance and repair costs of these assets are expensed as they are incurred; as long as these expenses do not prolong the useful life of the PP&E. Depreciation and amortization are provided using straight-line methods over the estimated useful lives of the assets as follows:
Useful Life (Years)
Land improvements ................................................................ 10 - 20
Buildings.................................................................................. 40
Machinery and equipment ....................................................... 3 - 15
Computer software ................................................................ 3 - 5
Leasehold improvements are depreciated over the shorter of the estimated useful life or the term of the lease. ?The Company reports depreciation and amortization of PP& in cost of sales and selling, general and administrative expenses based on the nature of the underlying assets; Depreciation and amortization related to the production of inventory and delivery of services are recorded in cost of sales? (Year in review).

G. Goodwill and Intangible Assets
Intangible assets acquired are recorded at estimated fair value. The intangible and good will that are regarded to have no defined live are not amortized.
H. Revenue Recognition
?The majority of the company?s revenues result from the sale of tangible products, where revenue is recognized when the earnings process is complete, collectability is reasonably assured, and the risks and rewards of ownership have transferred to the customer, which generally occurs upon shipment of the finished product, but sometimes is upon delivery to customer facilities? (Year in review).
The company recorded the provisions for customer volume rebates, product returns, discounts and allowances are recorded as a reduction of revenue in the same period the related sales are recorded.
I. Cost of Sales and Selling, General and Administrative
Cost of sales includes the cost generated in the manufacturing process as well as the costs incurred in serviced used to get the products ready to be sold.
Some costs pertaining to service are
? Security monitoring
? Security door
Some costs related to the sales of the products are:
? Direct labor and material
? Inbound freight
? Quality control
J. Advertising Costs
?Television advertising is expensed the first time the advertisement airs, whereas other advertising is expensed as incurred? (Year in review).
K. Sales Taxes
The sales and value added taxes collected from customers and remitted to governmental authorities are excluded from net sales reported in the consolidated statements of operations.
L. Accounts and Notes Receivable
Trade receivables are spread between various retailers, distributors and industrial accounts in many countries. Due to the risk of association selling globally, the company created a reserve for uncollectable receivables. In the case of leasing equipment the company has the right to repossess if the account is delinquent. When dealing with foreign governments, formal institutions are sometimes difficult and the legal rights of the foreign company are not respected due to the government policy to protect local business. All accounts not paid within a 90 day period are considered delinquent.
V. Financial Analysis (Traditional Approach)
Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE Sticker: SWK) has had positive financial results since the 2010 Merger & Acquisitions of Stanley and Black & Decker. Notwithstanding, it has also experienced several hiccups along the way precisely in its debt management capabilities which has increased slightly, precisely in the fiscal year of 2011 with 33.40% of total capital. Overall, their financial results have been solid despite a weak economic market.
When looking at liquidity measures- working capital and current ratio, we see some consistent and organic growth over the years reviewed but it despite the economic conditions it can do better. The total amount of working capital is dramatic, with over $1 billion dollars in working capital per year ($1054.70 in 2011) with an average $972.42 for the eight-year period reviewed herein (2004-2011).
When comparing profitability measures from the 2004 to 2011, it is evident that Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) is performing consistently. Profit margins are growing and have attempted to remain in such pattern for the last three years but it had a significant lower profit in the year ending 2010 with 0.02, but it was able to perform better in 2011 with a 0.07. The return on equity had dipped slightly over this same time period.
According to financial analysts in MacroAxis it is worth mentioning that ?Based on latest financial disclosure Stanley Black Decker Inc. has Total Debt of 4.32 B. This is 41.38% higher than that of Industrial Goods sector, and 1191.21% higher than that of Machine Tools and Accessories industry, The Total Debt for all stocks is 15.21% higher than the company. . They also estimate that Stanley Black & Decker has less than 43.4% probability of going bankrupt within the next two years of operation while the average for the industry is 34.90%. (MacroAxis).
A. Income Statement
According to a Business Week Analyst, ?Year over year, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. has been able to grow revenues from $8.3B USD to $10.4B USD. Most impressively, the company has been able to reduce the percentage of sales devoted to selling, general and administrative costs from 24.83% to 23.64%. This was a driver that led to a bottom line growth from $198.2M USD to $674.6M USD?. (BusinessWeek). Although this is very impressive, there are some items worth looking into.
B. Balance Sheet
?Although debt as a percent of total capital increased at Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. over the last fiscal year to 33.40%, it is still in-line with the Machinery industry's norm. Additionally, even though there are not enough liquid assets to satisfy current obligations, Operating Profits are more than adequate to service the debt. Accounts Receivable are among the industry's worst with 49.90 days? worth of sales outstanding. This implies that revenues are not being collected in an efficient manner. Last, inventories seem to be well managed as the Inventory Processing Period is typical for the industry, at 75.09 days?. (BusinessWeek).

C. Cash Flow
Stanley Black & Decker has experienced modest growth in its Net free cash flow of $1003 in 2011 up from $935 in 2010, representing a growth rate of 1.07%. It is too soon to analyze the 2012 year end results as they will be announced on January 24, 2013, but we can estimate that they will be approximately in the realm of the Q4 FY2012 of $184.80 or better.
VI. Financial Ratios
Below are the ratios used to calculate Stanley Black & Decker?s profitability, liquidity, activity, financial leverage. (See Exhibits 1-7 for the complete ratio analyses in excel format).
1. Profitability Measures
a) Return on Assets Ratio:

This ratio is a good indicator of how management is able to make large profits out of small investments. Stanley Black & Decker is very asset heavy (5% -) but its average eight-year total is at par with its 2011 results of 0.06. The industry average is 5.75%
b) Return on investment (ROI)
DuPont Model ROI=Margin x Turnover = (Net Income/Sales) x (Sales/Average Assets). This is a key measure of profitability and there has been a significant growth from year 2010 with 4.48 to year 2011 with 18.12. The average eight year total is 11.42 and the industry average is 8.2.

c) Return on Equity Ratio

ROE is affected by two factors: how profitably it employs its assets and how big the firm?s asset base is relative to shareholder?s investment. For the FY2011, ROE was 0.10 in comparison to the industry average of 4.83%. The eight-year average total is 0.13 and it performing fairly well.

d) Profit Margin

The profit margin is the percentage of net income to sales. For the year 2011 the profit margin was 0.07 compared to the industry average of 0.04. It had a reduction of profit margin in 2010 but it increased slightly in 2011. The average eight year total is 0.06 which is above the average.


e) Basic Earnings Power Ratio


The basic earnings power ratio for SWK is an average eight year total of 0.07 and is able to turn its assets into operating income.
f) Earnings per Share Ratio


Stanley Black & Decker has attempted to improve its profitability. Prior to the M&A of Stanley with Black & Decker in 2010, it had achieved positive results particularly in 2007 with 0.11, in 2008 with 0.08 and then declining in 2010 with 0.02. It did achieve better results in the year 2011 with 0.08.


2. Liquidity
a) Current Ratio


This ratio illustrates Stanley Black & Decker?s liquidity for the eight years 2004- 2011: Although its liquidity has increased from year 2009 with 1.18 in comparison to year 2010 with a 1.75, it did see a slight decline in 2011 with 1.32. Although its average eight-year total is 1.51, it is measuring lower than the industry average which is 2.0.
b) Quick Ratio or Acid Test Ratio


Stanley Black & Decker has had a strong bill-paying activity since the year 2004 and it demonstrates consistency over the eight-year review period. The company?s short-term liquidity is high with a 1.29 in 2010 and 0.88 in 2011which demonstrates underperformance. SWK has a 1.06 eight-year average when measured against the industry average is of 1.0-1.1.


c) Net Working Capital Ratio or Working Capital Ratio


The working capital ratio redefines Stanley Black & Decker?s abilities to meet its obligations when they become due. There was a significant increase in its abilities to pay in the year 2010 with a working capital ratio of $2068.60 with a moderate decline in the year 2011 with only $1054.70 or 1.96% decrease. The average eight year working capital ratio total is $972.42.

Company operations are slow and this may signal trouble ahead.
d) Current Liabilities to Inventory Ratio


Stanley Black & Decker may have an over reliance on unsold goods to finance operations.


e) Cash Ratio


The industry average is .5 and Stanley Black & Decker may be having issues paying its short-term liabilities fairly quickly. It did have a lower cash ratio in 2011 with a 0.28 vs. a 0.63 in 2010. Overall, it has a 0.34 eight-year average cash ratio. The company may have a backlog of accounts receivable and this merits their attention to avoid further cash flow problems.
f) Operating Ratio


Stanley Black & Decker is able to keep its profitability in the event of a reduction in sales. This was not the case in the year ending 2007 when it had a -7.33 operating ratio. It has consistently been performing better but it may be able to lower it further to increase its operational efficiency.
3. Asset Ratios
Asset turnover is the 2nd driver of a Company?s return on equity (ROE). Stanley Black & Decker is efficient in managing its working capital needs with an average eight year total of 0.93. There was a slight decline in year 2010 with 0.56 in comparison to year 2009 with 0.78, but it achieved a 0.65 in year 2011.
a) Inventory Turnover Ratio


Inventory turnover=Cost of goods sold / Average Inventories
This ratio illustrates how efficient BDK has been with its inventory management practices. The inventory turnover ratio for the year 2011 was 8.55 in comparison to 7.47 in 2010. This inventory has grown since the year 2004 when it was 4.06 (see Exhibit 1) but it has along the way faced issues with its inventory management practices starting in FY2006-FY2007. Stanley Black & Decker has progressively become efficient in generating sales from its assets.
b) Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio


The company has been able to generate sales from fixed assets, specifically its PP&E (net of depreciation) with an 0.81 in 2010 and 0.89 2011 respectively. It does have a 1.48 eight-year average. Its highest percentage was in the year 2005 with a 2.64 then it had a significant decline in 2006 with only a 0.42 (the year it had financial problems).
c) Total Assets Ratio


The total assets ratio is somewhat low for the industry but notwithstanding it has an estimated 15.49B in total assets in 2011 according to our estimates and analysis and it may very well have close to 16.32B estimated assets according to MacroAxis.
d) Asset to Equity Ratio


By looking at this ratio we can determine if the company is suitable for further credit extension if needed and if it has potential growth strategies in its forecast. Stanley Black & Decker has a relatively low debt ratio of 0.56 in 2011 and a 0.63 eight-year average; it also has an asset to equity ratio of 2.28 in 2011 and a 2.42 eight-year average. The company is a good risk for investment.

4. Debt and Coverage Ratios
Both the debt and debt/equity ratios illustrate the amount of debt in capital structure. For the year 2011 the D/E ratio was 1.28 compared to the industry average of 1.9. It has slightly increased since 2010 when it presented a 1.16 ratio. Their debt to equity is an estimated 16% lower than the industrial good sector and approximately 3.51% higher than its competitors in the industrial goods sector. (MacroAxis).



a) Total Debt Ratio or Debt Ratio


With an average eight-year debt ratio of 0.63 and a 0.56 for year 2011, it seems that Stanley Black & Decker is able to meet its long-term debt. Moreover, creditors (financial institutions and bondholders/stockholders) will more likely offer more capital if it were necessary since the net working capital ratio is fairly low and there are using leverage to their advantage.
b) Interest Coverage Ratio


The company is generating sufficient revenues to cover its interest expenses for the time being. The industry average is 1.5 and anything below that signifies the company is heavily burdened by debt expenses.
c) Debt/Equity Ratio


Both the Debt ratio and Debt/Equity ratio illustrate the amount of debt in the capital structure. For year 2001 D/E ratio was 1.28 compared to the industry average of 1.9. Its eight-year average is 1.53 which is still lower than the industry average.
5. Market Ratios
?In accordance with recently published financial statements the book value per share of Stanley Black Decker Inc. is about 42.68 times. This is 99.53% higher than that of Industrial Goods sector and 9.67% lower than that of Machine Tools and Accessories industry, The Book Value per Share for all stocks is 330.68% lower than the firm?. (MacroAxis).
a) Earnings Per share Ratio


?According to company disclosure Stanley Black Decker Inc. has Earnings per Share of 3.32 times. This is 31.75% higher than that of Industrial Goods sector and 41.86% lower than that of Machine Tools and Accessories industry, The Earnings per Share for all stocks is 137.14% lower than the firm? . (MacroAxis)
b) Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio)


This ratio demonstrates how much investors are willing to pay for the stock in regards to its earnings. The P/E ratio industry average is 16.4%. Its price to earnings ratio is approximately 19.59% lower than the industrial goods sector average and is 16.04% lower than the Machine Tools and Accessories sector. (MacroAxis).
c) Price to Cash Flow Ratio




d) Dividend Payout Ratio (Payout Ratio)


The Stanley Black & Decker dividend payout ratio tells us the amount of earnings paid as dividends to common stockholders. The dividend payout ratio for year 2011 was 0.41 in comparison to 1.02 in 2010. Historically, Stanley Black & Decker has had a steadily increasing payout ratio as evidenced below.

Forecasting

Valuation

Assessment of Solvency

Conclusion

Exhibit 1
Input for 8 Year Historical Data (2004-2011)



Exhibit 1a
Ratios for Years 2004-2011 and 8 Year Average


Exhibit 2
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Input Worksheet-Last Four Quarters (2011-2012)

Exhibit 2a
Liquidity Ratios-Last Four Quarters (2011-2012)











Exhibit 2b
Asset Ratios-Last Four Quarters (2011-2012)

Exhibit 2c
Profitability Ratios-Last Four Quarters (2011-2012)

Exhibit 2d
Debt Ratios-Last Four Quarters (2011-2012)

Exhibit 2e
Market Ratios

References
http://www.yousigma.com/comparativeanalysis/blackanddecker.html

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/06406/en/Stanley-Works-Black-Decker-Combine-Create-8.4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_%26_Decker

http://img.docstoccdn.com/thumb/orig/50540429.png

http://www.homechannelnews.com/article/stanley-black-decker-posts-weak-profits

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-04-25/business/3_1_black-decker-equity-analyst-latin-america

http://www.sdmmag.com/articles/86931-stanley-closes-12b-niscayah-acquisition-will-grow-globally

http://investorplace.com/2012/07/stanley-black-decker-falls-short-of-q2-expectations/

http://www.makingafortune.biz/list-of-companies-b/black-&-decker.htm

http://www.blackanddecker.com/Company-info.aspx

http://www.everyjoe.com/2009/03/14/work/black-decker-slashes-retirement-benefits/

http://www.alacrastore.com/research/s-and-p-credit-research-Black_Decker_Corp_BBB_Credit_Rating_Placed_On_CreditWatch_Negative_On_Lower_Earnings_Guidance-699370

http://yearinreview.stanleyblackanddecker.com/downloads/swk2011_annual_report.pdf/ Retrieved January 6, 2013.

www.stanleyblackanddecker.com/ Retrieved January 6, 2013

www.finance.yahoo.com

www.cnnmoney.com

www.cpaclass.com

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Schurr, L. (2013) Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006. Reuters. Retrieved January 29, 2013 from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/29/us-usa-economy-homes-index-idUSBRE90S0JZ20130129

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