Prosperity in the Developing Nations Dissertation

Because transportation infrastructure and services are important components of the urban system, they need to be sustainable and contribute to economic growth rather than harm the people that rely on them for their livelihoods. According to Asri and Hidayat (2005), "The expansion of social and economic activities has resulted in rising pollution and environmental degradation following the economic crisis in Jakarta Metropolitan area where environmental regulations were largely disregarded" (p. 1792). Taken together, these issues represent a growing public health threat that requires informed solutions, and these issues are discussed further below at they relate to the aims and objectives of the study.

Aims and Objectives

This research has an aim and several objectives. The aim of this research is to find out how the pollution levels occurred in several main roads in Jakarta and explore some strategies to reduce carbon pollution levels by using some schemes and scenarios. These scenarios must strive to accordance with policy, which has been undertaken by the Jakarta city government.

The objectives to be achieved by quantifying the traffic conditions related to air pollution level are:

1. The analysis of the current emission level on the main roads in Greater Jakarta.

2. The analysis of the factors that affect the air pollution on the main roads.

3. The development of "what if" scenarios to be constructed with current pollution level in Greater Jakarta for reduction of emissions.

4. To identify feasible alternatives and recommendations to reduce the air pollution level in Greater Jakarta.

Importance of Study

The importance of this study relates to both the contribution that vehicular emission are making to diminished air quality as well as the growth in demand for fossil fuels in emerging nations such as Indonesia. For instance, according to Li (2009), "Increased prosperity in the developing nations of Asia is taking a toll on the health of the people and the environment. This economic boom, however, comes at a cost, as sharply increased consumption of energy and resources have produced a major surge in pollution and inflicted significant damages on the Asian people and their environment" (p. 55). Moreover, although air pollution is a regionalized problems, it also has transnational aspects. In this regard, Li emphasizes that, "Sulfur emissions from coal combustion are transported across national boundaries. Transnational air pollution also creates international political tension as concern grows over acid deposition in the oceans and in neighboring countries" (2009, p. 55).

Structure of the Study

The research consisted of five chapters which are: introduction, literature review, methodology, result and analysis, and conclusion. The first chapter is introduction which tells about background of the study, aim and objectives, and structures oh the research. The second chapter is literature review which tells about the relationship between transportation with emissions, the case study, the previous study, the standards, forecasting procedures, transport handling facilities, and data presenting. The third chapter is methodology which tells about data collection, analysis method and methodology flow chart. The fourth chapter is result and analysis which presents the result of scenario to reduce emission on the main roads and the analysis. The last chapter is conclusion which tells about conclusion the research, limitation of the study, and recommendation for further research.

Chapter 2: Review of Related Literature

The Relationship between Transportation and Air Pollution

There is a growing body of evidence that indicates there is no "critical threshold" that predicts safe exposure levels to particulate air pollution, but what is known is that harm increases as peoples' exposure increases, and these damages begin with very low concentration levels (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001). Although environmental issues have been made priorities by many multinational organizations as well as developed and developing nations individually, the problem of air quality has become sufficiently severe that more action is needed even as further studies continue. Nevertheless, it remains unclear precisely what combination of transportation systems provide the optimal solution for reducing particulate emissions, and the research has become increasingly fine-tuned to assess NOx, SOx and other smaller particulates in recent years. In this regard, Bolt and Dasgupta report that, "As research on damage from particulate pollution has accumulated, policymakers in developing countries have begun modifying their traditional concern about diverting resources to pollution control when poverty, illiteracy, and infant mortality are still major problems. Their past hesitation has, in part, resulted from uncertainty about local pollution levels, but recently measurement of particulate pollution has become much more common" (2001, p. 38).

Industrializing nations are developing monitoring data that has provided valuable opportunities for researchers to provide much more detailed information concerning the severity and scope of particulate-based air pollution in high-density urban regions.Indeed, the data is becoming increasingly robust and new data is being added all the time, and the benchmark data contained in these repositories of data can help identify extreme situations. Using an econometric model calibrated to the latest data, a research team at the World Bank recently developed estimates of ambient [PM.sub.10] concentrations for more than 3,200 cities and incorporates a number of variables, including fuel use, population density, economic activity, and meteorological conditions (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001). The results that emerged from this comprehensive model indicate that average [PM.sub.10] concentrations in East Asia (primarily China) and South Asia (primarily India) are approximately 400% higher than average concentrations in member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, while average concentrations are about 200% higher in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001). These findings indicate that a majority of residents in cities in developing countries are confronted with serious particulate-based air pollution (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001). This model also indicates that particulate air pollution kills about 750,000 people developing regions each year, with more than 300,000 deaths occurring in China alone (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001).

On a global level, developing regions account for over 90% of mortality, morbidity, hospital visits, and lost working days. Translating these numbers into economic losses, four developing regions have estimated annual gross domestic product reductions greater than 1.5% -- a substantial loss in countries whose annual income growth has averaged around 5% in recent years. China suffers close to half of the total damage from air pollution in developing countries (Bolt & Dasgupta, 2001).

According to Fischlowitz-Roberts (2009), air pollutant constituent elements include carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulates. Sources for these constituent elements are from the combustion of fossil fuels in gasoline-powered automobiles and coal-fired power plants. In fact, it is not so much a matter of which source is involved, it is the cumulative effect of these sources to the overall concentrations of particulate matter that are harmful to human health. In this regard, Fischlowitz-Roberts (2009) reports that, "Nitrogen oxides can lead to the formation of ground-level ozone, among other things helping to cause smog, which is primarily composed of ozone and particulates. Particulates are emitted from a variety of sources, primarily diesel engines" (p. 35). Moreover, the high concentrations of these constituent elements in urban regions creates a long-term public health threat. Indeed, Fischlowitz-Roberts (2009) emphasizes that, "The air in most urban areas typically contains a mixture of pollutants, each of which may increase a person's vulnerability to the effects of the others. Exposure to carbon monoxide slows reflexes and causes drowsiness because carbon monoxide molecules bind to hemoglobin, reducing the amount of oxygen that red blood cells can carry" (p. 35). The nitrogen constituent is not the only element involved, of course, but it is especially noxious in its ability to produce human health problems. For instance, Fischlowitz-Roberts (2009) adds that, "Nitrogen dioxide can aggravate asthma and reduce lung function, as well as making airways more sensitive to allergens. Ozone also causes lung inflammation and reduces lung function and exercise capacity" (p. 35).

Land-use and transport systems are an important determinant of carbon dioxide emissions from urban regions. It is often asserted that urban compaction is the spatial policy best able to constrain travel and emissions, but evidence supporting this assertion is limited, particularly with respect to the combined emission from transport and land use (Namdeo, 2011). Representation of traffic flows is an essential adjunct to both urban and non-urban planning. Being important working tools for governments and consultants, traffic models have received a great deal of attention from academic and other analysts. Urban traffic models have been of greatest interest, because congestion adds to the complexity, but traffic modelling is also essential for non-urban road planning and investment (Taphlin, 2005).

Transportation plays a significant role in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for approximately a third of the United States' inventory. In order to reduce CO2 emissions in the future, transportation policy makers are looking to make vehicles more efficient and increasing the use of carbon-neutral alternative fuels. In addition, improving traffic operations, specifically through the reduction of traffic congestion, can lower CO2 emissions (Barth, 2008). Some specialists (e.g., Aditama, 1999 in Soehodho, et al., 2005)….....