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Forecasting Indices
The following figure is taken from sales data of sporting goods, graphed over the last four years, showing worldwide demand for wave and ski boards combined. Each line on the graphic shows combined sales of wave and ski boards. The significant ramp in sales throughout March and April are attributable to the launch of each seasons' new wave boards. The spoke in sales in October are attributable to ski board sales ramping on a seasonal basis. In aggregate the market continues to grow for these products, generating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the four years of 4.76%. Using averaging based on four periods generates the Averaging line shown in the following graphic. As can be seen from the graphic on the previous page, simple averaging only amplifies the variation in the data series, it does not explain which factors are causing the variation overall (Ziegel, 2006).
Forecasting Analysis
What's needed to better understand the variation in the data is a forecasting technique that takes into account periodic fluctuations in value. The following analysis was completed using the Moving Average feature of the Data Analysis Pack installed in Microsoft Excel 2010. The orange line shows the relative goodness of fit for the data overall, showing May to…
References
Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (1993). Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research. International Journal of Forecasting, 9(2), 147-147.
Snyder, D. (1982). Current approaches to time series forecasting. Business Forum, 7(2), 24-24.
Ziegel, E.R. (2006). Computational intelligence in time series forecasting. Technometrics, 48(3), 451-451.
57 Spillover Effect on the Stock Market and Bond Prices in Relation with GARCH Abstract This study examines the spillover effect between bond and stock markets in the U.S. using GARCH. The finding of a unidirectional spillover flow from bonds to stocks in the U.S. is discussed in the light of new marketplace variables that have been introduced into the markets in the previous decade. These variables include the rise of HFT, algorithm-driven
" (2000) There are other factors associated with change that enhance the ability for the independent hotels to compete as there is a segment of customers with the desire to discover for themselves what best satisfies their taste. The independent hotels offer guests "the option of maintaining their differentiation while affiliating with 'soft' brands, which reflect a defined product and offer similar service support as franchisers or chains." (Swig, 2000)
……South African Municipalities Municipal Revenue Loss Reduction through Improved Municipal Valuation Methodologies:Balance Sheet Enhancement of South African Municipalities to Improve Rates and Taxes Revenue GenerationAbstractThis study examines the property valuation process of Municipalities in South Africa and develops a strategy for strengthening that process in order to more efficiently value properties and ultimately to enhance municipal balance sheets and increase revenue streams. This study proposes an innovative valuation method based
The former might be, 'What specific...' [while] Less structure might be exemplified by: "Please respond to the following in your own words: I....'" (Dereshiwsky, 1999) in addition: adding some open-ended items such as these to a more traditionally scaled quantifiable survey, such as one with Likert-scaled attitudinal items, and/or "check/off" questions on demographic background variables, is a good way to make the survey "multimethod" in nature. This is because you'd
The assumptions of industry structure and pricing are based on the market shares of the leading competitors in the motorcycle market including Harley-Davidson with 65% and Honda with 12.9%. There are over 40 different manufacturers of motorcycles globally who comprise the remaining 22% of the worldwide market (Murphy, 2008). Gaining distribution for a new motorcycle model will be challenging given the concentration level of competitors in the market. As
Media and Conflict The existence of a pro-business, pro-government bias led to ineffectual journalistic coverage of U.S. unemployment during the period leading up to the 2008-2009 recession. In what has come to be known as the Great Recession because of its comparability to the Great Depression, the U.S. unemployment rate reached historic highs. The magnitude of the recession was such that economists and policy-makers should have been better prepared to manage